2024 Elections: Bawumia leads in latest poll with 49.1% but there is possibility of first round victory – Prof. Smart Sarpong
Respected pollster and statistician, Professor Smart Sarpong has said that his latest poll that has Dr Mahamadu Bawumia in the lead with 49.1% does not mean there will be a run-off.
Speaking in an interview with Paul Adom Otchere on Metro TV’s Good Evening Ghana on Thursday, November 21, Dr Sarpong, who is the Director of Research and Innovation at the Kumasi Technical University (KsTU), said, “I am not predicting a second round. This report was prepared 4 weeks to elections and I want to be sure that parties will work hard to cross win in the first round,“ he said.
Defending his polls, Prof. Sarpong said, “My accuracy levels turn up to be 99.6 %.”
Results
The research with a reasonable population sample size of 99,355 from all the 276 constituencies, had John Mahama in second place with 45.8% while Nana Kwame Bediako had 2.2% with Alan Kyerematen obtaining 1.2% of the votes. The report, which was released on Thursday, November 21, 2024, put all the other candidates at 1.7%
Bawumia best chance
The report further predicted that the 2024 presidential race will be won by only one of the two leading political parties, with the NPP having a higher chance of winning a first-round victory.
“Ahafo, Ashanti, Bono, Central, Eastern, North East and Western regions are the leading regions powering the NPPs 49.1% lead. Bono East, Greater Accra, Northern, Oti, Savanna, Upper East, Upper West, Volta, and Western North regions are the leading regions powering the NDCs 45.8%,” the survey revealed.
Parliamentary
For the parliamentary elections, the report said the NPP is expected to sweep a number of seats, meaning there wouldn’t be a hung parliament as we find now.
According to the research the NPP safely has 128 seats while the NDC has 92 seats. Interestingly, none of the 6 independent candidates has the chance to be in parliament.
FULL RESEARCH REPORT PRESS Final 2024-1
